NOS Hydrodynamic Model Outputs of Operational Forecast System (OFS)

NOAA develops, operates and maintains a national network of operational nowcast and forecast hydrodynamic modeling systems referred to as Operational Forecast Systems (OFS) to further support its mission goals and priorities for safe navigation and understanding environmental conditions. The OFS have typically been the result of collaborations within the National Ocean Service (NOS). However, critical partners in NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), other government agencies and academia have also resulted in the implementation of an OFS. Looking ahead, NOS will continue to work with its external research partners to enhance its modeling capabilities. An OFS consists of the automated integration of observing system data streams, hydrodynamic model predictions, product dissemination and continuous quality control monitoring. State-of-the-art numerical hydrodynamic models driven by real-time data and model forecast guidance form the core of these end-to-end systems.

The models generate nowcast and forecast guidance outputs for four environmental parameters: water levels, water temperatures, salinity and currents. The web pages display time series and animations of the aforementioned four parameters along with the NWS forecasted winds used to force the latest OFS nowcast and forecast runs.

The OFS are implemented in critical ports, harbors, estuaries, the Great Lakes and coastal waters of the United States, and join NOS' operational oceanographic capabilities to form a national backbone of real-time data, tidal and tidal current predictions, data management and operational modeling. The OFS provide nowcast and short-term (0 - 120 hour) forecast guidance.

The NOS vision is to provide accurate, reliable, and accessible predictions of coastal conditions along the entire coast of the continental U.S., for use by marine pilots and other maritime stakeholders to support planning decisions up to 14 days in advance.

A nowcast incorporates recent (and often near real-time) observed meteorological, oceanographic, and/or river flow rate data. A nowcast covers the period of time from the recent past (e.g., the past few days) to the present, and it makes predictions for locations where observational data are not available. The present is the time at which the nowcast is made, and at which the most recent observations are from. Forecast guidance incorporates meteorological, oceanographic, and/or river flow rate forecasts and makes predictions for locations where observational data will not be available. Forecast guidance is usually initialized by the results of a nowcast.

The wind graphics are created by spatially and temporally interpolating the wind products from the latest run of the National Weather Service's operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather forecast model.

Models are run and updated every 6 hours. Website shows map display (and hourly animation) of the nowcast and forecast guidance of the 5 datasets of: Water Levels, Tidal Currents, Winds, Water Temperature and Salinity. Data files are in NetCDF and are stored and made available on a THREDDS Data Server.

Raw data have not been subjected to the National Ocean Service's quality control or quality assurance procedures and do not meet the criteria and standards of official National Ocean Service data. They are released for limited public use as preliminary data to be used only with appropriate caution.

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Nowcast and Forecast Guidance outputs are based on preliminary data observations from active sensors. Preliminary data have not been subjected to the National Ocean Service's quality control or quality assurance procedures and do not meet the criteria and standards of official National Ocean Service data. They are released for limited public use as preliminary data to be used only with appropriate caution. Historical data are only good for observations and may not reflect present day conditions. These data are only representative of the geographic location of the observation.

Wind model output derived from National Weather Service's North American Mesoscale (NAM) model is also included in the output files.

Models are driven by real-time preliminary data observations and model forecast guidance. Nowcast and forecast guidance outputs are generated using hydrodynamic models run in an operational environment. Models are generally run four times a day, and most systems use either ROMS or FVCOM. Animation on the OFS is created by the model field output (at every grid point) from NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) model outputs.

Raw data have not been subjected to the National Ocean Service's quality control or quality assurance procedures and do not meet the criteria and standards of official National Ocean Service data. They are released for limited public use as preliminary data to be used only with appropriate caution.

The Continuous Operational Real-time Monitoring System (CORMS) staff is responsible for the 24 hours a day, 7 days a week monitoring of NOS operational observations, predictions, and operational forecast systems (models). The Modeling Team will work with CORMS to investigate the flags and work on solutions to ensure timely and correct information is displayed on the OFS web page and disseminated through the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) THREDDS server.

Data from active sensors are recorded and transmitted; then they go through a quality control procedure and are loaded into a database.

Model output files include 2-dimensional fields of wind speed and direction and water level elevations, and 3-dimensional fields of tidal currents, water temperature, and salinity. These hourly fields are updated four times per day. Time series at specific points are also outputted on a six-minute interval with most locations coinciding with CO-OPS observational stations. All of these outputs cover a 6-hour nowcast period and at least a 48-hour forecast. Wind model output are derived from products of National Weather Service's operational weather models, such as North American Mesoscale (NAM), Global Forecast System (GFS), High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), or National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD).